| DJIA | 12932.09 | -76.43 |
| Nasdaq | 2946.27 | -11.48 |
| S&P 500 | 1363.72 | -5.85 |
| 10-Year | 101 14/32 | 12/32 |
| 30-Year | 101 30/32 | 27/32 |
| Euro | 1.30125 | -0.0042 |
| Nymex Crude | 97.01 | -0.92 |
Source: Dow Jones/Reuters
All Quotes as of 4:00 p.m. ET
Stocks
U.S. stocks traded lower as global worries about political turmoil in Greece outweighed a rise in U.S. small-business confidence. The S&P 500-stock index fell for the fourth day in five. Consumer-discretionary and energy shares led declines across most of the index's 10 sectors. The DJIA extended its slide into a fifth straight day and the the Nasdaq Composite touched its lowest intraday level since February. "The Greek elections unnerved the market into wondering what's going to happen to Greece," said Andrew Slimmon, managing director at Morgan Stanley Smith Barney.
Treasurys
Treasury prices rose, pushing some benchmark yields down for a fifth session, as political uncertainty in Greece increased the appeal of the relative safety of U.S. bonds and supported the government's first of three major auctions this week. Bonds stayed up after the Treasury Department sold $32 billion in 3-year notes at a yield of 0.362%, the lowest level since February. The all-time low was 0.334%, set in September 2011. Bidders offered to buy 3.65 times the amount of debt sold, above the average of 3.46 times at the last four monthly auctions of the securities, according to CRT Capital Group.
Forex
The dollar rose, extending its longest string of daily gains since 2008, as investors sought a safe haven amid worries both about Greece's potential exit from the euro zone and the health of Spain's banks. The ICE dollar index, which tracks the greenback's performance against a basket of major currencies, rose 79.719, up from 79.611 late Monday. It's the seventh straight gain, according to FactSet Research, the longest string since September 2008 -- when Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were taken under government conservatorship and just before Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy. The euro fell to $1.3014 from $1.3053 in late North American trading Monday.
Greece's political turmoil showed no signs of abating Tuesday as hopes faded that leading political parties can form a coalition government after Sunday's splintered election result, increasing the possibility that Greeks will be called back to the polls as early as next month.
Greek leftist leader Alexis Tsipras took center stage as he embarked on a bid to form a coalition government following his Syriza party's surprise second-place finish in Sunday's inconclusive election, quickly winning support from Democratic Left, a smaller leftist party that finished seventh in Sunday's elections.
But an alliance of leftist parties will still fall well short of a majority in parliament, meaning his bid to form a government is likely to collapse, just as that of his conservative peer--Antonis Samaras of the New Democracy party--did a day earlier.
Tsipras, himself, made no secret of his slim prospects to form a government, saying that the numbers and Greece's electoral system, which awards 50 bonus seats to the first party, were stacked against him.
As chances diminish that a new government will emerge from the talks, Greek political leaders are already setting their sights on the next election, now expected to take place in June. The repeat vote is likely to pit Samaras and Tsipras against each other in what could turn into a referendum for a choice between the euro and the drachma.
Morgan Stanley (MS) may have to put up $7.2 billion in additional collateral or termination payments to counterparties, and may face $2.4 billion collateral requirements at certain exchanges and clearing organizations in the event of a three-notch credit rating downgrade.
The potential collateral needs for Morgan Stanley--disclosed in a quarterly report filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission--under that scenario are higher than the projections the securities firm issued in late February.
Morgan Stanley is the only major U.S. financial firm facing a possible three-notch downgrade, a move that would lower the firm's long-term credit rating from A2 to Baa2, the second-lowest investment grade.
The long-run U.S. unemployment rate may end up higher than current estimates because of the time it takes workers to find new skills and fill available jobs, a Federal Reserve official said Tuesday.
"People talk about the natural rate of unemployment--if part of the unemployment is people finding skills and moving to other jobs then the natural rate is higher than you think it might be," Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Jeffrey Lacker told reporters.
Lacker's comments followed a meeting with students and administrators at Guilford Technical Community College. The students were taking courses and earning degrees to make a switch to new occupations, such as welding, information technology or aviation services.
"Doubling the demand for welders isn't going to make it any easier for them to learn welding," Lacker said. "To me it's powerful evidence about the time it takes to resolve the mismatch problems."
McDonald's Corp. (MCD) said sales growth at its established restaurants slowed in April at a faster pace than the company had anticipated, an indication that the economic headwinds may be catching up with the fast-food giant.
McDonald's global same-store sales, or sales at restaurants open at least 13 months, rose 3.3% in April, below the company's projection less than three weeks ago for 4% growth. The Oak Brook, Ill., company didn't explain the shortfall, although the drag appeared to be in the U.S., where McDonald's is trying to shift customers away from its dollar menu and to a new "extra value" menu, which has slightly higher prices and thus generates stronger profit margins.
"Amidst a challenging global economic environment, McDonald's ongoing commitment to optimizing the menu, modernizing the restaurant experience and broadening accessibility will enable us to continue to satisfy the evolving needs of our customers," McDonald's Chief Executive Jim Skinner said in a press release Tuesday.
Purchasing managers in both the factory and non-manufacturing sectors expect revenues and jobs to increase for the next six months in the U.S., according to surveys released Tuesday by the Institute for Supply Management.
"Expectations for the remainder of 2012 continue to be positive in both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors," the ISM semiannual survey said.
Manufacturing purchasers expect revenues to rise 4.5% for the rest of the year, less than the 7.0% gain reported for all of 2011, says the ISM. Non-manufacturing purchasers say their revenues will increase 4.8%, much faster than the 1.5% in 2011.
Higher revenues will lead to better hiring. Factory employment is projected to increase 1.4%, while non-manufacturing payrolls are expected to increase 1.9% for the balance of 2012.
Purchasing managers in both sectors report paying higher prices in the first four months of this year. Looking at all of 2012, manufacturing purchasers expect input prices to increase 2.3%, while non-manufacturing purchasers expected prices to be up 2.6%.
Germany's Bundesbank has warned against easing austerity programs in euro-zone crisis countries, reports WAZ-Group newspapers Tuesday.
The overriding goal of national policy in countries like Greece must be restoring the trust of financial markets, according to the report, citing a letter from the Bundesbank to the German parliament's finance committee.
The bank wrote that it was skeptical of loosening consolidation efforts given "the somewhat very high public debt and the fragile trust in the capacity of public finances."
A spokesman for the Bundesbank could not be reached for comment.
U.S. gasoline prices at the pump will be much lower than previously estimated this summer, according to a new government report.
The U.S. government downgraded its estimate for the average price of retail gasoline for the summer driving season to $3.79 a gallon from the previous month's $3.95, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook.
The report added that prices at the pump already may have peaked for the rest of the year.
The report said gasoline averaged $3.90 a gallon last month -- and estimates that the monthly average price will go no higher for the rest of the year.
Only last month, the report predicted gasoline prices would peak at $4.01 in May.
Yahoo Inc. (YHOO) Director Patti Hart is expected to step down later this year, according to a person familiar with the matter, just days after the board initiated a probe that will include an examination of her role in the hiring of Chief Executive Scott Thompson.
Thompson's academic record was recently found to be misstated in a Yahoo regulatory filing and on the company's website.
Hart, chief executive of casino-game-maker International Game Technology Inc. (IGT) and a Yahoo director since 2010, initiated the search for a new CEO at Yahoo after the firing of Carol Bartz last September.
Hart eventually recommended Thompson, who was hired in January.
Since last week, when activist shareholder Third Point LLC pointed out the erroneous filing, Hart has told at least one individual via email that Yahoo's legal department had hired an outside forensics firm to vet Thompson, according to an email reviewed by the Journal.
Zillow Inc. (Z) said its real-time measure of 30-year fixed mortgage rates dropped for a third week in a row.
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate on Zillow's Mortgage Marketplace fell to 3.65%, from 3.69% a week earlier. The rate hovered around 3.63% to 3.69% for most of the week.
The rate was the lowest on record for Zillow Mortgage Marketplace, which started tracking mortgage data in April 2008. The previous record low was 3.66%, from February of this year.
"Rates slumped today as new concerns emerge about Europe's ability to avoid a deeper debt crisis in the aftermath of the French and Greek elections, therefore encouraging investors to return to the relative safety of the U.S. mortgage bond and Treasury market," Erin Lantz, director of Zillow Mortgage Marketplace, said.
Though uncertainty in Europe should keep rates volatile, Lantz said Zillow doesn't expected a sustained decline or rise in rates during the coming weeks.
Royal KPN NV (KPN.AE) said Tuesday that America Movil SAB de CV's (AMX) EUR8 per share cash offer to raise its stake in the Dutch incumbent mobile operator "substantially" undervalues the company.
Still, KPN's management and supervisory boards will carefully review the offer and will seek further clarification as to America Movil's intentions, the company said in a statement.
It added that it will explore all strategic options in the meantime.
America Movil, owned by billionaire Carlos Slim, said in Mexico City late Monday that it intends to increase its stake in KPN to a maximum 28% from its current holding of 4.8%, and is offering EUR8 per share in a deal worth up to EUR2.64 billion.
KPN's shares opened trading in Amsterdam 20% higher. At 1428 GMT, they were up 18% at EUR7.67.
The battered U.S. housing market has started along the path of slow recovery, according to data compiled by financial technology firm Fiserv Inc. (FISV) that adds to a growing optimism on the state of the nation's housing sector.
In the report, Fiserv Chief Economist David Stiff said the firm expects home prices will stabilize by the end of this summer, noting that home prices generally lag changes in sales activity by nine to 12 months.
"Nearly all non-price metrics--existing home sales, rising home order volumes, increased spending on home improvement, a jump in multi-family construction--indicate that the housing sector hit bottom last year," Stiff said.
The firm pointed to a dramatic improvement in affordability from the recent plunge in home prices, noting that when prices bottom out later this year they will be 35% lower than peaks struck in the first quarter of 2006.
While a large amount of buying activity is currently driven by investor buyers, Fiserv expects first-time and trade-buyers will eventually be drawn to the market by low home prices.
Molson Coors Brewing Co.'s (TAP, TAPA) first-quarter earnings slipped 4.1% as it shouldered costs tied to a recent acquisition and weaker-than-expected sales.
Though Molson's sales only inched up 0.1% in the latest quarter, the company's top line has grown of late as it has raised prices and pushes into emerging markets like China. While consumers have been buying more spirits and craft beers, largely at the expense of major U.S. brewers like Molson, U.S. unemployment is falling and core military customers have been returning home.
To get an even greater foothold abroad, Molson last month agreed to buy Central and East European brewer StarBev LP for roughly $3.54 billion. The deal gives Molson access to a region where the beer market is growing as the middle class expands and due to a regional preference that favors beer, though investors and ratings firms fretted about the transaction costs and integration worries.
Molson on Tuesday detailed an executive shuffling ahead of the pending acquisition of StarBev, which is expected to close by the end of the current quarter. Mark Hunter, current head of Molson's U.K. and Ireland unit, will lead the new business and succeed outgoing StarBev Chief Executive Alain Beyens. Hunter's old post will go to Molson Chief Financial Officer Stewart Glendinning. Gavin Hattersley, currently CFO for the Molson-SABMiller PLC (SBMRY, SAB.JO) joint venture MillerCoors LLC since its 2008 inception, has been promoted to become Molson's CFO.
For the first quarter, Molson reported a profit of $79.5 million, compared with a year-earlier profit of $82.9 million. Earnings per share were u-11.48d at 44 cents amid a roughly 4% decline in outstanding shares.
A plummeting stock price has forced Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. (GMCR) founder and Chairman Robert Stiller to sell 5 million shares of the coffee company's stock, according to a regulatory filing Tuesday.
The sale shrinks Stiller's stake in the company he founded and led for more than 25 years by more than a third and raises concerns that he may be forced to sell more shares of Green Mountain if the stock price continues to fall.
Green Mountain representatives didn't return messages for further comment.
Investors can borrow from banks or brokerages using their stock portfolios as collateral. Because of stock-market volatility, banks require investors to maintain a balance in their accounts that is a certain percent, or margin, of what they have borrowed. If stock prices fall sharply, investors must deposit more money into their margin accounts to maintain the required cushion.
A margin sellout, such as in the case of Stiller, occurs when a broker liquidates an account after a margin call fails to raise the cushion to the required level.
Research In Motion Ltd. named a pair of European wireless-industry veterans to its senior management team, filling two big vacancies on its executive bench as it ramps up for the launch of its next BlackBerry phone sometime later this year.
RIM said Tuesday it hired Kristian Tear, who has previously worked at Sony Corp. and Ericsson AB, as RIM's new chief operating officer, and Frank Boulben, formerly of wireless startup LightSquared Inc. and previously at Vodafone Group PLC, as the BlackBerry-maker's new chief marketing officer.
Both men will face immediate and steep challenges as they join RIM Chief Executive Thorsten Heins in his effort to turn around the company. Mr. Heins, who took the helm from long-time co-chiefs Mike Lazaridis and Jim Balsillie early this year, made the appointment of a chief marketer one of his first priorities. The last RIM executive to hold that job left the company just ahead of the launch of the PlayBook, RIM's poor-selling tablet.
Earlier this year, RIM's former chief operating officer stepped down, along with the company's chief technology officer, amid a broad review by Mr. Heins of strategic opportunities for the company. RIM has been beset by a slowdown in BlackBerry sales and a series of operational stumbles, including a three-day, world-wide network disruption last Fall. It's share price has tumbled for more than a year.
The Waterloo, Ont.-based smartphone maker said Mr. Tear, a Swede currently based in Germany, will oversee all operational functions for handheld devices and services, including research and development, products, global sales, manufacturing and supply chain. He was most recently executive vice president at Sony Mobile Communications, and previously held executive positions with Ericsson in Europe, Asia and Latin America.
While investors were coming to terms with slowing economic growth in the U.S. and Europe and growing political turmoil in France and Greece, one thing they had on their side was a much better-than-expected reporting season for first-quarter earnings.
Not anymore.
Earnings season, which was kicked off when Alcoa Inc. (AA) reported results after the April 10 close, is essentially over. Of the S&P 500 companies, 434, or 87%, have already reported results, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Overall, earnings have grown 7.8% from year-earlier levels, Thomson Reuters said, much better than the 3.2% growth expected back on April 1.
But with the S&P 500's decline Tuesday, all the earnings-related gains have been wiped out.
First, the index has sliced through an uptrend line starting at its April 10 low and extending Tuesday to about 1360.50. The index then went a step further by falling below the April 10 low of 1357.38. It was down 1.2% at 1354 Tuesday afternoon.
To make matters technically worse, the break below the April 10 low, which was sandwiched between the April 2 multiyear high of 1422.38 and the May 1 high of 1415.32, confirms a "double-top" reversal pattern.
It also means the index is now following a pattern of lower peaks and lower troughs, which chart watchers see as a defining characteristic of a downtrend.
The bad news is that the market could still get a lot worse in a hurry. The downside target of a double-top reversal is calculated by subtracting the height of the pattern--1422.38 minus 1357.38--from the breakdown point of 1357.38 . That would put the S&P 500 around 1292, which represents a further 4.6% decline from current levels.
The good news is the weakness may not last too much longer.
The downside target is right in line with what was previously strong resistance within the 1290-to-1300 range. That level had capped several rally attempts in late October 2011 and early January, before the S&P 500 finally broke out on Jan. 18. And one of the more widely followed technical axioms is that the stronger the resistance on the way up, the stronger the support when that level is revisited.
In addition, Tom McClellan, publisher of the McClellan Market Report, said his Democratic Presidential Cycle Pattern, which he builds by averaging together the performance of the S&P 500 during four-year periods of a Democratic president, suggests a bottom is due within a week. "Everything still appears to be well set up for a decline to the bottom due on Monday, May 14," McClellan said.
Talk about March Madness: consumers went on a borrowing spree, adding $21.4 billion in borrowing for the month.
The surge was the largest--in both dollar and percentage terms--since November 2001. What was unusual was an increase of $5.2 billion in revolving debt. The category--which includes credit cards--had been on a downtrend over the last three years. That lack of credit use had limited consumer spending.
The question is how to read the March credit increase. Was the gain an upbeat, "glass-is-half-full" view of consumers? Were consumers confident enough about their finances to haul out the credit card again? Or are consumers feeling half-empty, needing credit cards to cover the higher cost of gasoline?
The answer is probably a little of each, and it may take a few more months of credit data to gauge its true signal. It is another example of the split in the household sector. Some consumers have put the recession behind them while others still struggle with the drags of underwater mortgages, joblessness and past debt.
On the half-full side: According to the Conference Board, February and March had a gain in the percentage of consumers who thought their incomes would increase in the next six months. Households feel more comfortable borrowing if they expect bigger paychecks in the future.
In the half-empty view: average hourly pay increased only 0.5% in the first quarter, below the 8.8% jump in gas prices and the 0.9% rise in total inflation. To maintain their lifestyle, consumers had to borrow to meet current expenses.
If breaking out the plastic was a gas phenomenon, then the latest outlook on energy prices offers good news for the consumer outlook.
The Energy Information Administration said Tuesday summer gasoline prices wouldn't tip the $5-a-gallon mark as some analysts had feared. The EIA said gas prices will average $3.79 per gallon during the summer driving months. That is down from the $3.95 they projected last month.
The 16-cent price cut will free up money that might have been spent at the pump but now can be spent elsewhere. Households budgets will get some breathing room and drivers won't have to pull out the Visa or MasterCard to fill up.
What are the odds of a Greek euro exit now?
Citigroup says the chances have increased to 50-75%, JP Morgan puts the probability at just under 50%.
Yet markets appear pretty unruffled. Greek stocks have fallen 10% since Friday, but the Stoxx Europe 600 has fallen just 0.9%, Spanish and Italian bond yields have risen only modestly and the euro has merely wobbled. Are the markets being complacent? Or do investors simply no longer fear a Greek exit?
Of course, some tensions are priced in. Spanish bond yields may be relatively stable, but the 10-year spread over Germany has ballooned and is now 4.29 percentage points. German Bund yields have collapsed to record lows. Equity investors arguably are also being cautious. Although European stocks are up 2.4% year-to-date, they are underperforming their U.S. peers, while Italian and Spanish equities are down 7.7% and 18.6%, respectively.
But the popular thinking around Greece rests on two assumptions. The first is that a euro exit is not a near-term risk. True, Greece is not yet at the moment of truth. There will be forbearance while the country remains without a government, and there may be some room for negotiation once a new government is in place. But ultimately Greece's official lenders will find it politically difficult to budge on their demand for EUR11.5 billion of austerity measures to be identified swiftly for 2013 and 2014. Greece's voters want to stay in the euro, but if Europe pulls the funding plug, Greece may have little choice but to leave.
The second assumption is that a Greek exit might be manageable -- just as the Greek debt restructuring turned out to be. But this is highly debatable. Greece may have lost some of its power to shock markets, but a euro exit would expose euro-zone governments to losses on their loans.
It could set off a market hunt for the next weakest link, or spur deposit flight from southern European banks to their northern peers. Markets are unlikely to be so calm if that happens.
7:00 a.m.
May 4 MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey Market Composite Index (previous 698.2), Cur Chg (previous +0.1%), Purchase Index (S.A.) (previous 190.7), Cur Chg (previous +2.9%), Refinance Index (previous 3687.7), Cur Chg (previous -0.7%)
9:00 a.m.
Minneapolis Fed Pres Kocherlakota speaks on 'Toward a More Transparent Monetary Policy' in Minneapolis, Minn.
10:00 a.m.
Mar Monthly Wholesale Trade Inventories (expected +0.6%)
10:30 a.m.
May 4 EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report Crude Oil Stocks (previous 375.86M), (Net Change) (expected +2M), Gasoline Stocks (previous 209.72M), (Net Change) (expected -0.3M), Distillate Stocks (previous 124.02M), (Net Change) (expected +0.4M), Refinery Usage (expected 86.3%), Total Products Supplied (previous 18.54M), (Net Change) (previous -0.21M)
10:45 a.m.
Cleveland Fed Pres Pianalto speaks on 'Leadership' in Lexington, Kentucky.
12:00 p.m.
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia - Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser speech at community development conference
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Walter Invest Mgmt Corp. (WAC)
0.59
Wi-Lan Inc. (WILN)
0.1
XPO Logistics Inc (XPO)
-0.31