And so it begins...
The first named storm of the 2006 hurricane season has formed. It's name is 'Alberto'. Named so, I presume, after our equally destructive Attorney General. As of this writing, the storm is tracking toward Florida and is strengthening.
Scientists from NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) are warning of the possibility of the tropical storm becoming a hurricane by landfall tomorrow. If so, it would become the earliest hurricane to make U.S. landfall since 1966.
Not the kind of start you wanted to see coming off the most destructive season in history.
2005 boasted 28 named storms, 15 of which became hurricanes, and 3 of which became Category 5s at some point in their life cycle. Hurricane Wilma was the strongest storm ever measured in the Atlantic Basin as it hovered off the Yucatan Peninsula late last year. And no one needs to be reminded of Katrina or Rita, I'm sure.
Scientists (aka: The Great Guessmasters of the 21st Century) have predicted that this year could see as many as 16 named storms, 6 of which could be major hurricanes. You know, sometimes I'd just like to see where they come up with these completely arbitrary numbers. I mean, I don't call myself a 'journalist' by any means, but likewise, how can these people call themselves scientists when they're making claims straight out of the cracks of their asses? Where did they come from? What's the deeper significance of these sacred 'predictions'? As if last year didn't baffle them enough, or the South Atlantic hurricane of March 25, 2004, which struck Brazil - something scientists had previously called 'impossible'.
Then I am forced to recall the plethora of 2005 storms and their projected tracks and people from NOAA put on camera, shoved in the spotlight, and forced to make predictions about the speed, direction, and strength of the storms days or even weeks in advance like they were sportscasters picking the winner of a horse race, and they were right maybe 30% of the time from what I saw. But at least I understand the method behind the madness. At least I understand the basis for their predictions, considering things like sheer, temp, wind speeds, etc. But to try to predict the whole season in advance, especially after last year's HAARP-like showing doesn't even qualify as 'academic' in my book. It's just stupid.
Tell you what...as long as we're playing the game though, I think we should all play along. I predict 2006 will overtake 2005 as the worst hurricane year on record. I think there will be 30 named storms, 16 of which will be hurricanes.
There, now I'm a scientist too. That wasn't too difficult. And all this time I thought I needed a degree for that!
Anyone else care to play? How many Cat 5s you think we'll get this year?
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Comments:
I expect this season to be far less worse than last in terms of destructive storms.... I've been wrong before though.
Why the expectation? Because mother nature is a fickle thing and she will go to any length to surprise us. Wouldn't a weak storm year surprise us all?
Great post, BTW.
I will agree with bmvaughn.
Maybe they will name a few more storms this year (only because I think they get a thrill out of naming them), but I think we will have fewer destructive storms.
And what's your reasoning? Anything specific?
I think there'll be more because of global warming and because of the tornado weather we've already seen in my part of the country so far. I think it's indicitive of things to come. Why? I don't know. What do I look like, a scientist? ;)
My reasoning? Hmmmm ..... I was just thinking I like the every few years we will have really bad weather scenario. Very scientific on my part. ; )
Now, to be a little on the serious side, I agree the rash of tornado's already this season is scary. Hopefully it will not continue at this pace throughout the summer.
so much for the earliest hurricane ever.