From PoliticsUSA
If it isn’t the death of Bin Laden, then what is raising Obama’s approval numbers? The answer can be found in Obama’s personal popularity. Obama remains very personally popular. Overall 72% of battleground state voters personally like Obama. Of this group, 48% approve strongly of Obama the person, another 24% somewhat approve, 10% were unsure, 4% somewhat disapprove, and 15% strongly disapprove.
It's a little early to begin prognosticating the 2012 elections but polls are always a good place to start. There is a lot of good data in the latest numbers from this Politico/GWU poll which serves to set expectations for the 2012 race but PoliticsUSA boils it down nicely. The simple truth is that Americans vote out of ignorance. Poll after poll shows Americans are woefully ignorant on huge swaths of the political landscape. Indeed, it has become almost a partisan sport to show up with cameras at the other side's rallies and ask "average voters" even the most rudimentary of questions.
Come November of next year a disturbingly large number of Americans are going to cast a vote for the guy with whom they'd like to have a beer. Indeed, failing some devistating issue fumble on the part of the White House, the "have a beer" vote will decide the election much as it always has.
This is no great secret among political operatives; indeed, it is one of the major reasons that political campaigns, despite numerous pledges to the contrary, almost always devolve into personal attacks and mudslinging. The only sure way to win office is to convince the average voter that you are running against a scumbag.
The alternative is to try to win on issues.
The problem Republicans face there is that Obama leads them on almost all of them. On the issues of Social Security, Medicare, and Terrorism, the White House can claim a clear majority of the American people while on issues of jobs and the economy Obama still leads Congressional Republicans by a few points. The only issue the GOP can meaningfully claim is the deficit. Americans trust Republicans more on that one, 47% - 44%.
Three percent is not much, but it may well be all the GOP has to go on. To that end, the GOP has to make the 2012 elections about the deficit or they can kiss the White House and possibly their 2010 pickups goodbye.
The explanitory power of that single bit of information is enormous. It explains Newt Gingrich tacking left against Paul Ryan's plan to dismantle Medicare; more than 50% of Americans trust Obama above Congressional Republicans on the issue of healthcare and one does not win the Presidency by standing up to the majority.
It explains why Mitt Romney is trying to be for Obama's healthcare plan (in the form of the Massachusetts plan upon which it was based) while being simultaneously against it and foreshadows the difficulty Republicans are sure to face in trying to reconcile the right leaning stances they will have to take to win the nomination with the center leaning stances they'll have to take to win the Presidency.
But most of all, it explains why Boehner and the Congressional Republicans are so eager to drag out the fight over raising the nation's debt limit. Ultimately, the limit will have to be raised or the country will default with unquestionably drastic consequences but for the GOP there is little political advantage to be had in striking a compromise before it is absoutely necessary.
Every day that the debt ceiling (and thus the deficit) stays in the news is a day that the country's politics are focused where the GOP is strong and Obama is weak. Expect to see the ceiling raised at the last possible minute and, more importantly, expect to see it raised enough that we can have this national conversation all over again come the summer of 2012.