Many of you have commented/emailed about my profile picture of my yellow lab.  Cali (her name) was a rescue dog.  She had a tough life (pre our union) and I rescued her seven years ago last month from a "kill-shelter" on her day of euthanization.  For $34, I literally saved her life two hours before she was to be put down.  She was so pathetic, totally abused (cigar burns, kicked hips, etc.).  My vet gave me 10 days with her - that was over seven years ago (the best seven years of my life)...

Yesterday, I lost my best friend.  I had Cali put down and the void cannot be described.  I want to thank those of you who commented on her.  To know her was to love her.  She will be missed.

If we close lower this week, we are headed back to 7000(ish) - and then depending on Tiny Tim and the Merrymen/Women of Congress, we'll see where we go from there. The financials led us higher of late - and I am fearful they will lead us lower as more bug-a-boos come out from the darkness. Credit Card defaults and continued unemployment/confidence levels could be the catalyst.

Just my opinion.  I will be looking to add to short positions on Monday if presented the opportunity. We seem to be very neutral at friday's close. Calm before the storm? Or just basing for another run higher?

I enjoyed the downward action today - but still failed to see any real conviction.  Rally looks tired, but more an absence of buyers vs. an over-abundance of sellers. 

The trend looks about as flat/even as I have seen it of late.  I will most likely play the direction we will witness at the open on Monday.  Could be a gap in either direction.  The side that wins the open should win the next few trading sessions (in my humble opinion). 

Would like to see a retracement of some magnitude here - allowing the markets to regroup for a higher push, but we may simply drift higher.  When playing the leveraged ETFs (2X or 3X) the one thing you don't want to be is "WRONG."  Wait for the trend to form - could go either way next week.

Just one trader's opinion...

Best to all.

I will never pound the table on a good trade, but I will question my motives on a bad one.  I clearly was looking for a reversal before one formed.

The gap-up (aka gap down on my ultra short) caused me to hedge with a similar amount of cash in the opposite ultra ETF.  This move demonstrates my belief that the rally is long in the tooth.  I preferred a bias neutral position vs. taking a loss and rolling long. 

Many traders spend more time seeking a new trend vs. playing the one in front of them.  I am not exempt from that human pitfall. 

I will remain neutral for the time being as the bulls and bears wrestle this one out.  I will repost when I take one side off and add to the remain position.  At that time, anyone who wants to do the opposite - the coast should be clear!  LOL

Good trades to all...

Great run-up, but the markets appear to be a bit over-bought here.  Took a small short position today (contra-ultra ETF) and will risk to today's intra-day low (or today's DOW intra-day high).

Not looking for the downturn to amount to that much (i.e. not expecting to retest the recent overall lows any time soon) - but could be a decent retracement. 

If the markets break higher from here, we could see another 10% move on the SPX (880 level) with relative ease.

Just my opinions - good trades to all. 

I took some longs today - right at the close.  Some ultra long ETFs and a position in DRYS. 

The pundits keep calling for the VIX to rise again to the 80 range - but I just don't see that.  The VIX hit 80 because we were in unchartered waters.  Heck - we are knee-deep in those waters now - so I don't think we will see the same degree of fear we had months back.  Failure is upon us - the administration is in - and the unemployment continues to rise.  Those are not bias or political posturing.  Just facts.  We now know what we did not know when the VIX was 80.

Long and strong?  Not really.  Long and perplexed is more like it.  Both my equity and my ETFs are trading near recent lows (duh - LOL), so I will use those thresholds as my stops.

I hope you are all trading successfully & profitably

Time for a dose of humility!  OK - I was a tad early in my last post - did not see that last leg down.  Good news (for me), none of my moons aligned, so spent the past day and a half in cash (UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON).  I got a series of confirmations on my 15 minute charts and loaded up on some Ultra Long ETFs.  Then, just as I was enjoying the run, the Commercial Jet crashed into the Hudson River.  In a matter of minutes (seconds, really), the markets pulled back HARD - erroding all of my previously logged gains.  It just goes to show you how terror has changed our paradigms.  Even my son (14) when hearing of the crash, asked me - "was it terrorism?"  I am not sure I even knew what terrorism was when I was 14.  Of course, (thankfully), this was not terror - and the markets recouped much of the pull-back. 

My 15 minutes remain my "Scout" and I will continue to hold until the ADX starts to go against me.  Hopefully we can continue a three to five day run (into the Inaugration Ceremonies).  I am not expecting a rally in the magnitude of the sell-off we just experienced, but will ride it as long as I can. 

Let's make some money folks.  This is a trader's market.  Best to all of you!  I am making a lot of friends on this posting board - great group of traders!!

In my last post (January 5th), I referred to the rally as a head-fake and favored the downside vs. further longs.  Since then, the Dow is down 600 points (granted - I did not see such an extreme sell-off, but I did participate in it)!!!

The selling seems to be waning - and I am liking the odds that today could (operative word - "could") lead us to a short-lived trend reversal.  In preparation of this, I have moved my technical parameters to 15 minute cycles - but won't pull the trigger until all of my moons have aligned. 

I think these kind of swings are indicative of what we can expect this year (smaller daily swings, but meaningful four to seven day moves).  Very excited to captialize on it.  I favor the Ultra ETFs for these type of swings.

Trade your rules - don't deviate.  There is money to be had.  I will try to post when I see confirmation (from my viewpoint).

Best to all.

It was tempting to go short this morning - as this rally of late is looking long in the tooth.  But - being the disciplined sort of guy that I am, I sat in cash - and glad I did.  As a rule of thumb, I avoid the first 30 minutes of the trading day (like the plague).  In this environment - rules are king. 

I do feel the markets are getting toppy here and that the next leg will likely be downward in nature.  Year-end hype, new administration, etc., etc. can only carry us so far.  But - that being said, if I see an additional confirmation/reconfirmation to the long side (30 minute basis), I would probably play it - as I see the Dow to 9,250 with minimal resistance to that point.  

Risk/reward (at least from my vantage point) favors the downside, but the luxury we have as traders is to change our minds two to three a day!  LOL.  Good luck all. 

As my first official post here at Scottrade, I thought I would share some basic framework for how I look at the markets (and subsequently trade the same). 

As stated in my bio – and my blog description, I take a technical view of the markets.  That is not to say I am a rapid-fire trader – as technicals can apply to all sorts of time-frames, - but what it does mean, is that I am disciplined, rules-based and void of emotion.  I don’t “think” or guess where the markets are headed, I simply react (in a timely manner) to the direction they are currently demonstrating.  I don’t try to pick bottoms, and I don’t pretend to be smarter or better-prepared than other traders (professional or otherwise). 

I like high-volume stocks, ETFs, Ultra-ETFs, 3X ETFs.  I usually don’t “short,” but will play the inverse ETFs when appropriate.  I use a combination of 5 and 13 EMA, ADX, RSI and Williams %R.  Of late (in this extreme volatility) I have been using 10 minute charts, but a portion of my assets are traded on 60 minute or daily charts.  The swings (i.e. draw down) in time frames longer than that, present a disproportionate amount of risk (in my opinion).

I rarely hold over the weekend, and if I do, it is partial position.  I have a standard 3% rule (especially on tighter time frames) whereby if the position moves 3% in my anticipated direct, I take it.  As J.P Morgan once said… “No one has ever gone broke taking a profit.”  Words to live by!!!  Obviously, if I have a longer horizon, the percentage target/tolerance increases accordingly.   

Everyone has their own trading style, techniques and strategies.  None are wrong – differing opinions will help all of us over time.  I will use this board to post some “thought-provoking” trade opportunities – and welcome feedback, comments and counter-opinions. 

I look forward to chatting with you.

Vokser.